1 Bundesliiga 17-19.11

[Chivas Regal]

Tässä ranking 12 pelatun kierroksen jälkeen:

1. Werder Bremen 74 (-6)
2. Stuttgart 69 (+2)
3. Schalke 66 (+6)
4. Bielefeld 61 (+5)
5. Bayern Munchen 59 (+3)
6. Hertha 56 (-1)
7. Dortmund 55 (+5)
8. Wolfsburg 50 (0)
9. Cottbus 49 (0)
10. Leverkusen 48 (-3)
11. Frankfurt 48 (-5)
12. Nurnberg 47 (-1)
13. Aachen 42 (0)
14. Mönchengladbach 39 (+1)
15. Hamburger SV 35 (0)
16. Hannover 29 (-2)
17. Bochum 29 (+2)
18. Mainz 24 (-3)

Nuo siis pistearvioita kauden lopussa. Suluissa muutos edelliseen kierrokseen.

[Mika Ässä]

Näitä on pikkusen tarjolla Betdaqilla, illalla varmaan enemmän.

Bochum - Frankfurt Half time/full time 1/1 Betdaq 4,70 Raja 4,19 Oa 1,12 Panos 1 / 10
Bochum - Frankfurt Half time/full time 1/2 Betdaq 49,00 Raja 46,40 Oa 1,06 Panos 0,5 / 10

[Mika Ässä]

Saksan liigojen kontaktilta huippuhyviä näkemyksiä 1.Bundesliigaan ->

VfL Bochum Eintracht Frankfurt 38 30 32 o/u 2,5 45 55
Two leaky defences, but no scoring ability upfront has either of them. Bochum is the weaker of them, but should have more spirit. Only value to be found is in laying overs.

Bayern München VfB Stuttgart 56 26 18 o/u 2,5 57 43
VfB might be top of the table, but they are a class and half weaker than FCB and missing 2 key performers (so far this season) in Osorio (DEF) and Hitzlsperger (MID) who after a slow start to the season finally has picked top form, but is suspended here after his heroics last time out. Bayern still missing 3 key internationals and despite them listing Deissler fit for the bench, will also be missing him. Bayern showed their real character for the 1st time this season in turning the tables in Leverkusen last Sat, despite going 2-1 down in the 80th minute. Will that spirit turn up here, or will they reverte to the side that twice this season made a very poor showing against table toppers (Nürnberg & Bremen). Vfb's hopes lie in frustrating Bayern, who have struggled in creativity. Did so too in Leverkusen, despite the win.

Borussia Dortmund Hertha BSC Berlin 50 28 22 o/u 2,5 47 53
Two teams aiming for a UEFAcup spot and both live off the points they make at home. Hertha especially are very poor travellers and no stadium is as daunting for visitors than the 80000 plus yellow & black walled Iduna Park. Germany's home support in this stadium during the World Cup was great, but nothing compared to what the die hard BVB fans can create here. Dortmund has won 11/13 last home games against Hertha. Both have had and still have injury problems and are missing key personnel. Hertha's problems now are much bigger though, as both Bastürk and Boateng are missing from midfield. Pantelic has done a great job upfront (with decent support from Gimenez) since the departure of their biggest star Marcelinho, who's departure did a world of good for the team spirit. They will be without any decent supply from midfield this time out.

1. FC Nürnberg Bayer Leverkusen 40 28 32 o/u 2,5 52 48
The hosts have been under rated ever since the old east german wizard took over the helm. They've suffered from injury problems a lot of this season, but most frustatingly they've been unable to hold on to leads in games, which they've dominated. Never more so than last weekend, when they threw away the victory in Aachen against 10 man Alemannia. Their injury list is not so vital any more, but Leverkusen have more quality and should have Ramelov and Castro fit. They are however missing key man Bernd Schneider. Barbare is finally finding his place in the guests system and with Kiessling and Vornin upfront supported by Barnetta and Freier, the medical company's team has a lot better scoring power than tactically astute hosts. BL should also be very fired up after losing in the fashion they did against Bayern. Leverkusen have had a bit of revenge feeling against Nürnberg since the spring of 2002, when FCN suprised them here and the Championship slipped out of Bayer's hands to Bayern.

1. FSV Mainz 05 Hamburger SV 31 29 40 o/u 2,5 46 54
HSV has different class, but one keeps waiting for them to perform and for their bad luck to take a turn for the better. Last time out they were woeful at home against Gladbach, but still very unlucky to concede an equalizer against a team, that did nothing to deserve a point. Mainz's crisis is more severe though, as their short lived saga in the top flight looks like ending this season. They lost out badly in the summer transfers and have not revored from them. They have a totally healthy squad though, which HSV is far from. Their starting line-up isn't poor, but the men in it have been a shadow of them selves, if one looks at their performances last season. A lot of them were on international duty this week and normally this would be a handicap. This time it might even have done them good. Mainz have lost their last 3 home games (1-3 against Aachen, 1-6 Bremen and 1-2 Wolfsburg).

Alemannia Aachen Werder Bremen 14 23 63 o/u 2,5 67 33
These 2 teams are much further apart in class than one division. Bremen is the only team in Bundesliga that can play a team like Barcelona to pieces and Aachen would be unlikely to get promoted from this seasons 2nd division. Now AA is hampered by key injuries + a suspension, when BWB are missing only their captain (Baumann) of their regular starters. The markets over reaction to last weeks home loss against Dortmund has been huge. They went from being 4/6 title favorites to 6/4 2nd favorites. There was even 4/5 available on Bremen in this match earlier in the week, when 3 weeks ago 8/13 would've been the top mark. Bremen went through a flu epidemic and the Dortmund loss came in the 3rd game within 6 days, when they just recovering from it. They have a key match coming up next week in the CL, but are very fired up here due to the critisism they've gotten in the German media.

Energie Cottbus FC Schalke 04 33 29 38 o/u 2,5 46 54
The key team news of the round came here, as Schalke lost Uruguayan Varela for this match, as he got injured during international duty. Schalke had struggled without playmaker Lincoln, until Varela all of sudden grew into that role and performed excellently at Gladbach and improved further against Mainz. Now both are missing. Asamoah has been missing even longer, so the 3 man midfield consists of Hamit Altintop, Bajramovic and Kobiashvili. Cottbus can smell a victory here. They have no injury problems and love shaking up the famous teams.

Borussia Mönchengladbach Hannover 96 54 28 18 o/u 2,5 45 55
The class difference much bigger than the table or market suggests. The home advantage is huge at Gladbach, as always. Gladbach belongs in the chase of a UEFAcup spot. Hannover will be fighting relegation all season.

Arminia Bielefeld VfL Wolfsburg 48 28 24 o/u 2,5 47 53
What would the pre season odds have been for Bielefeld trailing Bayern with a miserable point after 12 rounds ???. Bielefeld were one of the biggest losers in the summer markets, but their die hard attitude is still intact. They risk everything for a win. Correct way to play in in 3 points/win system. They have no real class, but Zuma's return to form has created a lot of chances for Wichniarek. Both can put chances away, which is a quality a lot teams are lacking at the moment. Wolfsburg have slightly better material, but have suffered and keep suffering from major injury problems. As some get well, others keep getting injured. Key men Hristov and Santana should be fit enough for the bench at least. Bokaye has showed improving form since his return.

[byte]

Yllä olevien kommenttien perusteella Centrebetin -1.5 tasoitusveto Werderin puolesta olis aika mainio 2.75 kertoimella.
Betfairillakin joku yrittää 1.65 kertoimeilla tunkea 55 000 euroa kehiin.

[erik]

Bayer Munchenin kotivoitolle arvio 56% on mielestäni outo. Tällaiseen lukuun saattaa päätyä jos katsoo taulukkoa. Pörsissä tällä hetkellä BM tarjolla melkein 1,70 joka sekin on aivan liikaa...

[Zizou]

Yllä olevien kommenttien perusteella Centrebetin -1.5 tasoitusveto Werderin puolesta olis aika mainio 2.75 kertoimella.
Betfairillakin joku yrittää 1.65 kertoimeilla tunkea 55 000 euroa kehiin.

Bremenillä ensi viikon keskiviikkona "jonnin verran tärkeä" CL-matsi Chelskia vastaan. Vaikka noiden matsien merkitystä monesti liioitellaan, IMO, tässä tapauksessa sille pitää laskea merkitystä - varsinkin, kun vastassa on nyt sarjan heikompaa kastia, joka keskittynee pääosin ainoastaan fyysiseen puolustamiseen?
Oma arvaus matsiin 17-25-58.

[Mika Ässä]

1. FC Nürnberg Bayer Leverkusen 40 28 32 o/u 2,5 52 48
The hosts have been under rated ever since the old east german wizard took over the helm. They've suffered from injury problems a lot of this season, but most frustatingly they've been unable to hold on to leads in games, which they've dominated. Never more so than last weekend, when they threw away the victory in Aachen against 10 man Alemannia. Their injury list is not so vital any more, but Leverkusen have more quality and should have Ramelov and Castro fit. They are however missing key man Bernd Schneider. Barbare is finally finding his place in the guests system and with Kiessling and Vornin upfront supported by Barnetta and Freier, the medical company's team has a lot better scoring power than tactically astute hosts. BL should also be very fired up after losing in the fashion they did against Bayern. Leverkusen have had a bit of revenge feeling against Nürnberg since the spring of 2002, when FCN suprised them here and the Championship slipped out of Bayer's hands to Bayern.

Vertailun vuoksi, mulla on Nurnbergille 45%.

Nürnberg - Leverkusen 1 ml 188bet 1,80 Raja 1,61 Oa 1,12 Panos 5 / 10

Tiedoksi jos joillekin maistuu tässä kotivoitto, Nurnbergin kertoimet putoamassa, esim. Pinnacle laskenut jo.

[uncertainty]

Bayer Munchenin kotivoitolle arvio 56% on mielestäni outo. Tällaiseen lukuun saattaa päätyä jos katsoo taulukkoa. Pörsissä tällä hetkellä BM tarjolla melkein 1,70 joka sekin on aivan liikaa...

Ei tuossa arviossa ole kyllä mitään outoa. Vastakkainhan ovat materiaaliltaan sarjan paras, viime kierroksilla kompuroinut kestosuosikki BM ja viime otteluissaan hurjassa vireessä ollut sarjajohtaja VFB. Perinteisestihän kotietu on tässä ollut kova, mutta Stuttgart on sarjan paras vierasjoukkue ja Bayern hävisi edellisen kotiottelun Hannoverille 0-1.
Vierasjoukkuetta sopivalla tasoituksella peleihin.

[erik]

BM huippukerroin, 1,70 tietämillä.

(1) Joukkue on materiaaliltaan ylivertainen Stutgarttiin, joka ei tosiaankaan kuuluu kategoriaan (Munchen, Bremen, Schalke)-->sarjan parhaimpiin joukkueisiin
(2) BM on löytänyt nöyryyden ja tyypillisen voittavan joukkuueen venymiskyvyn. Joukkue oli tappiolla vastaan Leverkusenia viimeisille minuuteille asti, mutta nosi lopussa mahtavaan voittoon.
(3) Huippu tipsteri Kuki on antanut tukensa Bayerille.Hän on varmasti nähnyt yhden jos toisenkin Bayernin pelin kuluvalla kaudella, eikä survo prosenttejaan vaan matemaattisilla kaavoilla ja toteutuneilla tuloksilla koska ne eivät kerro mitä on ollut tulosten takana!

[kala1]

Aachen - Werder Bremen 18 24 58

Aika mukavasti saa peliä kotivoitolle tuolla arviolla, esim Centre tarjoaa 6,50 Aachennille (OA 1,17)...
Kuitenkin Bremenillä tärkeä CL- matsi Chelsea vastaan ensi keskiviikkona, joka ei voi olla vaikuttamatta valmistautumiseen tähän otteluun.

Cottbus - Schalke 28 29 43 1 4,0 (Centre)

Schalke 5 BORDON Marcelo Jose (cpt.) DC *** INJURED 9 / 12
Schalke 10 LINCOLN AMC *** INJURED 8 / 12