MLB 6.9

[odds]

MLB runkosarja alkaa lähenemään loppuaan ja se vaikeuttaa arvioita. MarkusM mukaillen en usko että motivaatio juuri vaikuttaa muutoin kuin siten että tietyillä joukkueilla on mahdollisuus jakaa vastuuta tulevia kausia ajatellen.

Tulen tässä lähipäivinä laskemaan panostasoa, mutta nostan sen sitten entiselleen runkosarjan päätyttyä.

Kokonaisuutena kausi ollut hyvä. Eriteltynä niin että alkukausi oli surkea ja loppukausi ollut loistava. Kevään huonoa tulosta selittää virheet omassa laskennassa ja osaksi myös huono onni - arvaamallakin olisi pitänyt tehdä parempaa tulosta. Viimeiset pari kuukautta (totals+ML, noin 800 vetoa) olisi pelikassa peräti 32-kertaistanut toteutuneilla palautusprosenteilla (kelly jakajalla 4).

Lopussa on linkki seurantaan jota päivitän päivittäin.


<table border="1\"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>prob 1</th><th>prob 2</th><th>odds 1</th><th>odds 2</th><th>value 1</th><th>value 2</th><th>stake</th><th>win</th></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Detroit Tigers (K.Rogers)</td><td><B>Seattle Mariners (G.Meche)</B></td><td>48.35</td><td><B>51.65</B></td><td>1.66</td><td><B>2.43</B></td><td></td><td>1.26</td><td>5.95%</td><td>14.45</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Los Angeles Angels (E.Santana)</B></td><td>Baltimore Orioles (D.Cabrera)</td><td><B>73.38</B></td><td>26.62</td><td><B>1.66</B></td><td>2.43</td><td>1.22</td><td></td><td>11.07%</td><td>18.39</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Boston Red Sox (K.Snyder)</B></td><td>Chicago White Sox (J.Contreras)</td><td><B>47.95</B></td><td>52.05</td><td><B>2.18</B></td><td>1.79</td><td>1.05</td><td></td><td>1.28%</td><td>2.79</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Toronto Blue Jays (T.Lilly)</B></td><td>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</td><td><B>57.28</B></td><td>42.72</td><td><B>1.90</B></td><td>2.03</td><td>1.09</td><td></td><td>3.29%</td><td>6.25</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (J.Hammel)</B></td><td>Minnesota Twins (C.Silva)</td><td><B>69.84</B></td><td>30.16</td><td><B>2.16</B></td><td>1.81</td><td>1.51</td><td></td><td>14.61%</td><td>31.56</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Washington Nationals (M.O\'Connor)</B></td><td>St. Louis Cardinals (C.Carpenter)</td><td><B>47.73</B></td><td>52.27</td><td><B>2.85</B></td><td>1.50</td><td>1.36</td><td></td><td>6.49%</td><td>18.50</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>New York Mets (D.Williams)</B></td><td>Atlanta Braves (J.Smoltz)</td><td><B>61.24</B></td><td>38.76</td><td><B>1.96</B></td><td>1.96</td><td>1.20</td><td></td><td>6.97%</td><td>13.68</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Florida Marlins (A.Sanchez)</td><td><B>Arizona Diamondbacks (E.Gonzalez)</B></td><td>52.18</td><td><B>47.82</B></td><td>1.62</td><td><B>2.53</B></td><td></td><td>1.21</td><td>4.57%</td><td>11.57</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td><B>Milwaukee Brewers (C.Capuano)</B></td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers (D.Lowe)</td><td><B>73.32</B></td><td>26.68</td><td><B>1.95</B></td><td>1.97</td><td>1.43</td><td></td><td>15.10%</td><td>29.48</td></tr></table><B>Kokonaispanos 69.3312</B><table border="1\"><tr><th>Date</th><th>Home team</th><th>Away team</th><th>total</th><th>prob over</th><th>prob under</th><th>runs av.</th></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Detroit Tigers (K.Rogers)</td><td>Seattle Mariners (G.Meche)</td><td>8.5</td><td></td><td>51.11</td><td>9.13256</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Los Angeles Angels (E.Santana)</td><td>Baltimore Orioles (D.Cabrera)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td>50.28</td><td>9.52387</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Oakland Athletics (J.Blanton)</td><td>Texas Rangers (V.Padilla)</td><td>9.0</td><td>50.76</td><td></td><td>9.32923</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Boston Red Sox (K.Snyder)</td><td>Chicago White Sox (J.Contreras)</td><td>10.0</td><td><B>57.97</B></td><td></td><td>11.2906</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Toronto Blue Jays (T.Lilly)</td><td>Cleveland Indians (J.Westbrook)</td><td>10.0</td><td></td><td>50.35</td><td>10.3506</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Tampa Bay Devil Rays (J.Hammel)</td><td>Minnesota Twins (C.Silva)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td><B>62.50</B></td><td>8.9714</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Kansas City Royals (R.Hernandez)</td><td>New York Yankees (R.Johnson)</td><td>10.0</td><td><B>56.14</B></td><td></td><td>11.3065</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Washington Nationals (M.O\'Connor)</td><td>St. Louis Cardinals (C.Carpenter)</td><td>8.5</td><td></td><td>50.95</td><td>8.6282</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>New York Mets (D.Williams)</td><td>Atlanta Braves (J.Smoltz)</td><td>9.5</td><td></td><td><B>57.04</B></td><td>9.09104</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Philadelphia Phillies (R.Wolf)</td><td>Houston Astros (A.Pettitte)</td><td>10.0</td><td>52.19</td><td></td><td>10.6339</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Florida Marlins (A.Sanchez)</td><td>Arizona Diamondbacks (E.Gonzalez)</td><td>9.0</td><td></td><td><B>57.52</B></td><td>8.58387</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>Milwaukee Brewers (C.Capuano)</td><td>Los Angeles Dodgers (D.Lowe)</td><td>8.0</td><td>54.17</td><td></td><td>9.1771</td></tr><tr><td>16:23 6.9.2006</td><td>San Diego Padres (C.Hensley)</td><td>Colorado Rockies (J.Jennings)</td><td>7.5</td><td><B>55.42</B></td><td></td><td>8.4039</td></tr></table>Total runs 143.393 (in 15 games)