Solid value bets

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3300+ bets, ROI 8%


Yritän luoda lisäarvoa tännekin Tenniskauden alkaessa pääpaino tuleen olemaan siinä.


Preview kopsattu mun nettisivulta.


December 15 KHL Dinamo Riga vs Torpedo Novgorod


KHL

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A lot higher odds than expected on Torpedo here with some bookies! Didn't think there could be value betting against Dinamo. Well, with sharp bookies like Pinnacle there in fact is not value for this game.

Torpedo were playing okay vs Severstal but were ineffective with scoring in that game. Perhaps the results in that match affects the odds too much for this game.. The visitors must feel irritated after that match and poor Dinamo Riga make the perfect "victim". Overall, by pure class, Torpedo are Play Offs material in my opinion and now they have a quality goalie in Melnichuk who joined the team from the mighty SKA St. Petersburg. I believe the betting market has not fully understand the importance of this very good goalie.
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The rationale for the bet is more the very  low low level team Dinamo Riga than that the market would under-value Torpedo that much. Both Riga's roster and level of play are the worst now in the all KHL by a wide margin! Also they seem to give up easily if the and up trailing against a better team. The morale in the team is not the best for sure. Their roster has actually gotten even worse lately when the well-paid and very important for the team foreign players are gone. Also they don't seem to have any kind of effective tactics to stand a good chance versus clearly better teams.

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BET ON: Torpedo to win, odds 1.72 on moneyline with bet365, (Moneyline means extra time and penalties are included)

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Probability estimation: 64%

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[Solidvalue]

Kunlun vs Omsk December 21 ( KHL)

The first ever pick here was won 6-4 Moving on..

Omsk have lost the 2 latest games but played OK in those games. I rate them as 2nd best team in the Western Conference. The difference in pure class is big here, even bigger than the table shows! The small break KHL had this favors the bigger, better team Omsk as these top teams often drop points when they have been playing (and don't, similar to the NHL, find 100% motivation against a lower team) and/ or traveling a lot - distances in mother Russia are BIG and there are also many time zones too.

The game is played in Moscow as Kunlun (China) can't play at home (Covid-19) so home advantage is very slim.Not sure if all bettors actually realize this..Omsk, unlike many other big teams, didn't have many players in the international Euro tournament late this week which of course is good for them - got rest. Kunlun have in my opion been pretty Lucky result-wise lately which probably affects the odds too much here. Rarely have they been the better team on ice. Especially against Barys Nur-Sultan they were forced to defend hard but somehow grabbed a point losing in overtime. Omsk have won both previous matches against the "Chinese fake hockey team "Kunlun. In the first game in particular the were dominant.


BET ON: OMSK -1.5 goals, odds 1.80 with bet365, estimation 61%

EDIT: Pinnacle 1.85 nyt

[Solidvalue]

Kiitoksia, hyvin menny kyllä. Usein oon ollu samaa mieltä sunn kanssa KHL:sta. Tenniskauden alkua odotellessa - paras laji mulla kun iso volyymi huomioidaan.

[Solidvalue]

Pinnacle closing odds 1.70

Omsk 5-1 voittoon

[Solidvalue]

Aussie Open 9.2   Pella vs Coric
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Expecting a lot more close (baseline) battle than the bookies here. Coric priced below 1.20 is an insult to a decent player and a true fighter G.Pella. Yes, he is still lacking matches and some positive results recently but he is a guy who normally raises his level of play in Slams. Coric is the more talented player, no denying that, of the two is but seeing him crush Pella would be a surprise for our tennis team. Courts are faster than in previous years but Pella can handle that, unlike many bookies seem to think.
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Guido participated to the ATP Cup to start the season where he was heavily beaten by Rublev but the Russian is an elite player, top10. Guido did defeat semi-talented Nishioka as a clear underdog in 2 sets (posted as max stakes play on https://solidvalue2019.blogabet.com/ on him at 2.79 as you can see on the stats). The Argentinian played pretty aggressive tennis, more aggressive then we have seen him play usually, but didn't make too many unforced errors. A good sign for sure. The Argentinian was good at long rallies versus Nishioka, finding a good rhythm. Something he will need here to push sometimes erratic Coric.. Indeed, Coric rarely plays solid tennis throughout a best of 5 sets match often dropping sets even against pretty lowish players. Guido will make the most of Borna's bad moments and should steal a set here here at least! Odds on Pella going down now as sharp money is piling up on him. Even Pella winning would not shock us here!

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Bet ON: Pella to win a set, odds 2.00 bet365,



Probability estimation 59%



Other value bets: Pella to win over 12.5 games, odds 1.83 bet365, 62% and/ or Pella +7.5 games odds 1.83 bet365, estimation 62%